Sunday, December 7, 2008

Forecasting the recession

Forecasting is one of the deals a planner has to handle every week. However, I am very careful with this business. Why? It is not longer than 4 month ago that all the great wise people were forecasting an oil price of 200 $ per barrel. Further investment specialists forecasted that gasoline and diesel fuels will never be cheaper again. Needless to say that all that was great bullshit, now we have an oil price of 45 $ and the certainty that forecasting is a delicate issue . But hey, why learning from the past? The show must go on, and the so called experts are forecasting a long and painful recession and the end of the economy as we knew it. We have to go our own ways and see our own realities to avoid psychological mass phenomenon created by irresponsible "experts" and media which are only benefiting from sensations, either extremely good or extremely bad. And if you now still want to know what the ape featuring this post has to do with it?
Well, a blindfolded ape was choosing with darts his investments, while being benchmarked with highly professional investment specialists. Guess who had the best performance…

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